Future Projection of the World Economy After the Covid-19 Pandemic

Future Projection of the World Economy After the Covid-19 Pandemic
The economy of the whole world has been hit hard since the emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. The emergence of this pandemic has caused paralysis of the economic sector which not only attacks developing countries, but also has a critical impact on countries with giant economies such as the United States, China, and other countries. Other developed countries in continental Europe.

Now in 2021, the Covid-19 pandemic is slowly starting to be controlled since the discovery of the Covid-19 vaccine which is expected to be able to overcome this outbreak. The existence of mass vaccinations in various countries can realize new hopes for improving the situation and economic recovery. Then what is the future projection of the world economy after the Covid-19 pandemic ends?

According to a global survey report by McKinsey during 2021 on business executives, 71% of respondents consistently believe that global economic conditions will improve in the next 6 months. Although the current pandemic condition is exacerbated by the emergence of a new variant of Delta, only 36% of all respondents stated that this new variant of Covid-19 will be the toughest risk to domestic economic growth in the coming year.

Domestic economic growth in various countries is not only influenced by the wave factor of the Covid-19 pandemic that does not end. The factors of disruption in distribution chain activities and inflation are also the highest risks that threaten the economy. 52% of respondents in developed countries view the Covid-19 pandemic as a more prominent threat. Meanwhile, the number of respondents in developing countries who say this is still smaller, only 45% of the total respondents.
The higher level of fear of the Covid-19 pandemic felt by respondents from developed countries also made them tend to be more pessimistic about economic progress in their countries in the next 6 months. It is different with respondents from developing countries who are much more optimistic that the economy will improve shortly.

Although some of the respondents still showed pessimism about the future of the domestic economy in their respective countries, another surprising fact revealed that almost all respondents, both in developed and developing countries, stated that the current economic condition of their country was much better. Compared to 2020. This shows that in general global economic conditions have started to move towards improvement after experiencing a slump in 2020.

85% of respondents who come from assessing the condition of the domestic economy of their country is considered to have been very much better than the economic situation 6 months ago. Even though as we know that India is one of the countries in the world that had experienced the highest spike in Covid-19 cases in the world in April 2021 due to the emergence of a new variant of Delta.
The Covid-19 pandemic has affected various sectors of global life and created a very drastic decline, which was able to create a period of economic recession in several countries of the world. The existence of a major shift in the global stock market has also contributed to worsening economic conditions, which are increasingly difficult to recover due to reduced trading capital. Even though they had fallen, stock markets in Asia and the United States, which are the most influential in the world, are slowly recovering since the vaccination program began to be intensively implemented to achieve the target of herd immunity.

The global survey data conducted by McKinsey can provide new insights regarding projections and expectations of the global economy in the future. The existence of new progress and hope as well as cooperation between world governments in implementing vaccine programs in their countries are also key factors that support the global economic recovery in a positive direction in the future. Although the pandemic situation in 2022 cannot be predicted, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the world economy will continue to move towards a positive direction in 2022 even though it is only at 4.4%. This figure is indeed much lower than economic growth in 2021 which is predicted to reach 6%. This is because next year's economic activity will still have to adapt to the weak level of mobility